A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
